Growth Stocks Weekly


2007	8.8%
2006	153.3%
2005	28.2%
2004	166.7%
2003	28.8%
2002	18.7%
2001	(50.5%)
2000	180.9%
1999	39.4%
1998	36.4%
1997	28.1%
1996	116.9%

Latest Updates

2008-06-15 - Junior Gold and Natural Resource Sector Report - Gold Wheaton (GLW-TSXv): The Gold Version of Silver Wheaton (76KB)

2008-06-14 - Junior Gold and Natural Resource Sector Report - The Next Big Thing in Uranium - Jurisdiction (53KB)

2008-05-08 - Junior Gold and Natural Resource Sector Report - Endeavour Mining Capital (EDV-TSX): The Smart Money (91KB)

2008-04-30 - Growth Stocks Weekly Portfolio Edition - Vol 13 No 1 (657KB)

2008-02-23 - Junior Gold and Natural Resource Sector Report - Oriel Resources (ORL-TSX): Update: Emerging Nickel-Chromium-Gold Producer (91KB)

2008-02-18 - Junior Gold and Natural Resource Sector Report - Peak Gold (PIK-TSXv): Update: Emerging Intermediate Gold Producer (93KB)

2008-02-06 - Junior Gold & Natural Resource Sector - Geovic Mining (GMC-TSXv): Following the Smart Money into Cobalt (114KB)

2008-02-01 - Junior Gold and Natural Resource Sector Report - Mega Silver (MSR-TSXv): Venture to Grow – Exposure to Silver (79KB)

2008-01-11 - GSW Economic Insight - Junior Golds - Backing Up The Truck - Part 2 (508KB)

2007-12-10 - Junior Gold and Natural Resource Sector Report - Lero Gold (LER-TSXv): Early-Stage Gold Developer (116KB)

ur passion is uncovering well-pedigreed, early-stage, small-cap growth opportunities with limited downside. Our objective is to position ourselves in a timely manner through a combination of strong fundamental skills and proven technical analysis.

Investing is not a game of logic, else professors of logic would all be rich. It is a Wall Street legend that scientists, doctors and lawyers, logical people with education and occasional intelligence - do worse in the stock market than dart throwers and coin flippers. That is because the stock market is not a game of logic, but rather a challenge of understanding the mass mind, and thereby being able to anticipate it for profit. While this equally applies to trading, we first use our understanding of this to time the big cycles - the tides.

Early 2003 commodities ran up on the eve of the Iraqi invasion, clearly ending the 20+ year-long bear market in commodities. Commodities then sold off fairly hard as the CRB Index slammed into its long-term resistance, an opportunity we seized upon for some timely bottom-picking (see our Sample Copies section). You see, like Pavlov's dog, investors had been trained to take quick profits before the long term decline resumes. This time was different, and we recognized it early.

For the better part of two decades, the CRB's down-trending overhead resistance zone kept a lid on the CRB. The subsequent decisive breakout of the CRB Index on the long-term chart was enormously important - we would soon be within striking distance of many new all-time highs set back in early 1980. But is the 1980 high comparable to an equivalent high today? Hardly, given the continuing erosion of the U.S. dollar's purchasing power.

You see, Nixon opted for a pure fiat currency in 1971, de-coupling the U.S. dollar from its gold backing when France came a-calling with excess US dollars in hand - effectively reneging on the U.S.'s Bretton Woods promises.The inevitable result has been the relentless erosion of the dollar's purchasing power. Please refer to our annual April 30 Portfolio Editions for our discussions and observations along the way - especially these last six years.

So yes, commodities have certainly soared over the last few years in terms of the U.S. dollar. But could such a run of profits last for a decade or more as I suspect, and how does this look from the perspective of other currencies, against which we also needed to see commodity price strength - confirming the resource bull and not just a U.S. dollar bear?

Is it a Gold bull or a US dollar bear?

In a true resource bull market, gold and commodities rise versus most currencies, all things equal, and while we waited and watched for this for several years, we're finally there. 2006's relentless gold and resource price appreciation in the face of a counter-rallying U.S. dollar was the final proof we needed - this commodities bull market is secular in nature. Expect severe corrections, but the trend will be your friend for years to come.

Meanwhile the bear market in the U.S. dollar gathered renewed strength, breaking key long term support on the Dollar Index in 2007. While gold has been soaring for its own reasons - it's been the dollar that has been crashing, notwithstanding the occassional push back against the trend. The U.S. dollar's recent efforts at a rally hasn't changed the longer term need for the US dollar to decline further.

Gold's bull market is barely in the middle innings. In fact, it's lagged against most other commodities, mostly because of Central Bank selling and timely intervention. It's the demand and supply sides of the equation that will support the true trend for Gold and other commodities in the end, but the U.S. dollar devaluation must and will go on as the U.S. mortgages its children's future in its efforts to maintain world influence and avoid a painful downturn long overdue.

The Greenspan "put" has been adopted by new Fed-head Bernanke - bailing out the banking system and U.S. consumers at the cost of the U.S. dollar is the only palatable option.

On the headline-grabbing energy side, in 1993 China became a net oil importer, just like the U.S. More than half of China's 26 provinces are now facing critical electricity shortages.

China is the 2nd largest energy buyer in the world, after the US. By 2003 China already drove 35% of global oil demand. China's oil demand is expected to double again by 2010, and its electricity demand should quadruple by 2020.

The U.S. burns through over 23 million barrels of oil per day. Asia - with a population 10 times larger than in the US, only burns through 19 million barrels of oil per day. It will likely double that over the next 10 years.

Similarly, in the last few years China's steel imports skyrocketed to an international record... its copper imports exploded by 48%... iron ore, platinum, palladium, iridium, alumina supplies are being squeezed.

China needs resources. Without oil and other commodities, the Chinese miracle is over! And that alone virtually guarantees massive demand and commodity price hikes all around the world. China's awakening middle class is going through a combined industrial revolution and something akin to the U.S.'s nifty '50's infrastructure build-out, only much, much bigger. And it's achieved critical mass - now unlikely to be materially derailed by U.S. economic ills.

Then there's India's awakening, Japan's increasing demands, the difficulty in finding new exploitable resources, the official formation of the ASEAN free-trade zone ... I can go on and on about this fascinating opportunity.

All this and the U.S. is the world's largest debtor, yet still providing the world with its de facto reserve currency. And now there's increasing evidence that Russia, China and Japan and others are trying to reduce their exposure to the U.S. dollar. China's US$1.3 Trillion in foreign reserves alone is effectively a neutron bomb awaiting to be dropped on the U.S. economy. Exciting times indeed!

We uncover the next solid winners...

Please visit our Sample page for some of our Resource Sector Research Reports, periodic Portfolio Editions, and some of our widely-published economic blogs ... read more...